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Despite Friday’s ‘magnificent’ goldilocks jobs print, The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index (once Janet Yellen’s favorite indicator… until it started to turn down… and now just “experimental”) tumbled 1.9% in June, dramatically worse than expected and down for the 6th straight month.
Of course it’s probably nothing... better to focus on one extremely noisy data item than a 19-factor smoothed model that has historically correlated extremely well to recession…
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