Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses By Most On Record

Following flash PMI’s drop, another early August indicator has collapsed as Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey plunges to -11 (lowest since Jan 2013) missing expectations of +6. The plunge from July’s +10 to August’s -11 is the largest on record – back to 1993.

Biggest drop on record…

Weakness was across the board with new orders crashing from +15 to -20, order backlogs and capacity utlization collapsed, and average workweek slumping.

• Forecast range from 5 to 9 from 10 economists surveyed
• Shipments fell to -14 after 7 the prior month
• New order volume slowed to -20 after 15 the prior month
• Order backlogs fell to -21 after 1 the prior month
• Capacity utilization slowed to -19 after 3 the prior month
• Inventory levels of finished goods increased to 24 after 15 last month
• Inventory levels of raw goods rose to 27 after 23 last month

The only thing stopping this from being a monumental disaster was hope that sent future shipment expectations from +19 to +41 – the highest in a year.