Jonathan for 2019: Perish the thought!

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Since last week’s visit of former
President Goodluck Jonathan to Sokoto and the tumultuous welcome
given to him by the crowd, many people have been toying with the
idea of a Jonathan presidential comeback in 2019.

Jonathan had visited Sokoto to commiserate with the people,
especially the Dasuki family, on the death of their former Sultan,
Alhaji Ibrahim Dasuki, father of Jonathan’s national security
adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki, who has been in detention since last
year over the management of security funds.

The media reported that the crowd that welcomed Jonathan
displayed placards which read: “Baba Jonathan Come Back.”
Ironically, Sokoto State is controlled by the All Progressives
Congress. Shortly before last year’s election, Jonathan’s name was
like a taboo in Sokoto and most parts of Northern Nigeria, even
though he was still the President. Chants of Sai Baba
rented the air in solidarity with the presidential ambition of the
APC’s candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, who is the President today.

The surprise is that in less than one year and six months of the
Buhari Presidency, there could be any desire to have Jonathan back
in office. It is worse that such would come from the North, which
is seen as the stronghold of Buhari. Some commentators, including
ThisDaycolumnist, Dele Momodu, who campaigned for Buhari,
have written about the possibility of Jonathan contesting the 2019
election. But they seem to miss the point in the reaction of the
Sokoto crowd.

It will be foolhardy for Jonathan to even consider the idea of
contesting the 2019 election. Jonathan never portrayed himself as
power-crazy while in office. That was why last year’s election and
transition went without bloodshed and crisis. It is better for him
to remain the way he is, with some praising him for achieving some
milestones and others condemning him for achieving nothing. If
Buhari had not begun ruling Nigeria last year, today, he would be
viewed as the Messiah that would have saved Nigeria and made it one
of the top 10 countries of the world, if he was given the
opportunity. But by coming into office, it is a widespread view
that Buhari has been demystified.

During last year’s election, it was obvious that Jonathan and Buhari were not
fantastic choices, even though their political parties as well as
the mainstream media and social media engaged in outlandish
exaggeration to win the election. Each of the two candidates had
some strengths and deficiencies, and each voter preferred one
candidate based on perception and conviction.

The reason for the nostalgia for Jonathan is not because he will
do miracles if he were to return. It is because the electorate has
experienced the performance of Buhari and is disappointed. Hunger
or job loss knows no ethnicity, religion or political party. The
reaction of the Sokoto crowd should be a wake-up call to Buhari.
Inflation Buhari met in May last year at less than 10 percent stood
at 18.3 per cent in October. A bag of rice which sold at N8,000 in
May last year now sells at over N23,000. A dollar which
exchanged in the parallel market at about N230 in May last year now
exchanges for about N470.

Without any rise in the people’s earnings, the prices of all
goods and services have risen by between 100 and 200 per cent.
Sadly, there is no sign that this destabilising rise is about to
stop. With the continuous depreciation in the value of the naira,
it is obvious that there could be an increase in the pump price of
petrol any moment from now, because the bulk of the petrol we use
is imported with dollars. Many of those who were earning salaries
have lost their jobs with the mass sack that has been happening in
the banks and other organisations. The state of the economy and
non-availability of dollars have made many companies to close shop
or leave Nigeria. This month, Erisco Foods Limited shut down and
relocated to China, citing an unfavourable operating climate which
had escalated operational costs in recent months. That caused 1,500
people to lose their jobs.

In addition to all these, Nigerians see inertia in governance.
Simple decisions seem to take an eternity to make. At first, it
seemed as if the six months it took Buhari to appoint his ministers
was just a one-off teething trouble, but events have shown that it
is his style. Nigeria’s ambassador to the United States, Prof Ade
Adefuye, died on August 27, 2015. Over a year after, he has not
been replaced. Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the
United Nations, Prof Joy Ogwu, left office many months ago. She has
not been replaced. Mr James Ocholi, who was the Minister of
State for Labour, died in an accident on March 6, 2016. He has not
been replaced. Since last year when Prof Attahiru Jega and many
commissioners retired from the Independent National Electoral
Commission, many positions have not been filled. Last month, it was
reported that as many as 29 states did not have resident electoral
commissioners.

The two areas Buhari projects as his trump cards are security
and anti-corruption fight. After a rise in Boko Haram’s attacks
from when Buhari took over, there was a lull some months ago. It
was a sign that the security agencies were recording successes in
the fight against Boko Haram. It was comforting. The security
agencies and the government stated that Boko Haram had been
“degraded”. But it seemed hasty. In recent weeks, the extremist
group seems to be trying to prove that that it has not been
defeated. This has led to many attacks which caused the loss of
lives of many civilians and soldiers, including senior officers. It
shows the security forces still have much work in their hands.

The activities of Fulani herdsmen and kidnappers are also
worrisome, and there is no sign that they are being tamed.

On the issue of the anti-corruption fight, there have been
accusations of a selective fight meant to subdue and silence
opponents to the government. But the angle that seems glaring is
that the anti-corruption fight is not institutionalised and
systematic. It looks like something that has no tap roots and will
wither once Buhari leaves office. On the roads, in the offices, and
at different national points of entry or exit, officials of
different government agencies still brazenly demand bribes. They do
so because they know that nobody is coming after them.

One sign that shows that a country abhors corruption is the use
of agent provocateurs and underground agents. They pose as
people who need services or they pose as people who are ready to
commit a crime. If anybody demands a bribe from them or wants to
join them in the crime, they play along, recording conversations
and collecting evidences that will implicate the offenders. Once
the bribe is collected, their colleagues come in and make arrest.
What it does is that it puts everybody at alert. Hardened offenders
will still find ways to collect bribes but others will stop for
fear that they do not know who is real and who wants to ensnare
them. But because many people have noticed that there is no depth
in the anti-corruption fight, corruption still goes on in a blatant
manner.

Buhari came to power last year with so much goodwill.
Expectations were high. He was seen as the leader that would change
the culture of impunity, corruption, indiscipline, poverty,
flamboyance, injustice, tribalism, nepotism, mediocrity, waste, and
other vices going on in Nigeria. But his action and inaction show
that he seems overwhelmed. Except for those who defend whatever
Buhari does because of political, ethnic or religious loyalty,
there is discontent in the land because of the continuous slide
into hard times as well as a lack of clear-cut plan to turn things
around. That was why the Sokoto crowd asked for Jonathan’s return.
Buhari should find a way of reversing this descent and give
Nigerians something to cheer about.

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