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Much of my earlier career in intelligence was based on a
simple assumption. It was the kind of approach the “craft” shares
with a number of other pursuits. One expects that the usual usually
happens. You look for outliers, patterns that don’t fit the normal
profile, or events emerging from unexpected quarters. Everything
else is largely ignored, filed away, or filtered out. Which makes
the primary approach energy pundits have to geopolitical elements
curious. Perhaps it’s because some of them are so young they have
no genuine…

Much of my earlier career in intelligence was based on a
simple assumption. It was the kind of approach the “craft” shares
with a number of other pursuits. One expects that the usual usually
happens. You look for outliers, patterns that don’t fit the normal
profile, or events emerging from unexpected quarters. Everything
else is largely ignored, filed away, or filtered out. Which makes
the primary approach energy pundits have to geopolitical elements
curious. Perhaps it’s because some of them are so young they have
no genuine…

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