Buhari Vs Atiku: 13 Hot States To Watch

As the nation inches closer to February 16 general election, the
shape of the two-horse race between the All Progressive Congress
(APC) candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, and his Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) rival, Atiku Abubakar, is becoming clearer. The two parties
look set to do well in their traditional strongholds. However,
intriguing contests are shaping up in a little over a dozen states
and this could swing the outcome one way or another. In this
report, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam
Egburonu, Associate Editor and Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor,
shed light on the dynamics of the race in what can now be referred
to as the swing or battleground states for the forthcoming
polls.

IMO STATE

In the Southeast geo-political zone, Imo State, which is
currently administered by an All Progressives Congress-led
government, promises to be the hottest state to watch in the coming
elections.

This is because the implosion of the political family of the
out-going governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha, had created so much bad
blood that the ruling party in the state, the APC, can no longer
take it for granted that it would win the race in the state.

The high level criticism against the leadership style of
Okorocha almost all through his second term in office was worsened
by the open disagreement of top members of his political family and
other stakeholders within the political party over the result of
the governorship primaries. The bone of contention was the choice
of the governorship candidate, a disagreement that led to a major
division between Okorocha and his deputy, Prince Eze Madumere, who
is today backed by the leadership of APC. While Okorocha had pushed
for Uche Nwosu, his son-in-law, who also served as his Chief of
Staff, as the party’s candidate, APC finally chose Senator Hope
Uzodinma with the Deputy Governor, Madumere, as his running
mate.

Not only had Okorocha condemned the decision of his party’s
leadership on the matter, he had continued to back Nwosu, who had
since defected to another party where he hopes to actualise his
ambition

The disagreement first became concrete last December when
President Muhammadu Buhari openly declared support for the APC
governorship candidate, Hope Uzodinma, notwithstanding Okorocha’s
disapproval.

APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, who have a running
battle with Okorocha over the matter, made the President’s and the
party’s position known at a rally to flag-off Uzodimma’s campaign
in Owerri. Aware that the APC leadership would likely make public
its position at that December flag-off rally, Okorocha, who was
supposed to be the chief host of the event, decided to boycott it.
It was the first concrete confirmation that the party and Okorocha
may not succeed in reconciling their differences.

Since then, it seems certain that the matter had degenerated
further. For example, during the last women rally in Owerri,
Buhari’s wife, Aisha Buhari, openly disagreed with Okorocha on the
governorship candidate that would win the election in Imo.

Aisha Buhari, at the event disagreed with Okorocha’s open boast
that it was his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, of Action Alliance (AA) and
not Senator Hope Uzodinma of APC that will win in Imo State’s
governorship election, even as the governor then said he would
however support Buhari during the presidential election.

Represented by the wife of the Vice President, Oludolapo
Osinbajo, Aisha, in her response to Okorocha, called on the
supporters of APC to vote for the candidates of the party at all
levels, emphasizing that APC will win both the governorship and the
presidency.

As a result of the in-fighting in Imo APC, the state has become
a major battleground in this year’s elections.

Confirming the fear that Governor Okorocha may work against the
party since he was not allowed to have his way, Senator Uzodinma,
who spoke to journalists after the women rally, said, “The world
has seen how the governor is working against APC in the state. I
want to appeal to the leadership of our great party to look into
the matter and take appropriate action. I cannot tell you whether
his action is anti-party or not but you could see the response of
our members when he made his comments. You people will judge. But I
will only tell him that only God, and not him, can make me
governor. And I will become governor because Imo people have spoken
and God heard their cries. Rochas has only few months to leave
Government House and whether he likes it or not, he will leave on
May 29, 2019,” he said.

Ironically, the uncertainty is not limited to APC. The other
leading parties have issues that have made the likely outcome of
the elections rather difficult to predict. It would be recalled,
for example, that the governorship candidates that would contest
with APC’s Uzodinma, include the Deputy Speaker of the House of
Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha (PDP), Senator Ifeanyi Ararume
(APGA), Honorable Tony Nwulu (UPP), Linus Okorie (YPP) and of
course, Uche Nwosu of AA. Backed by Okorocha, there is no doubt
that Nwosu will be one of the major frontrunners in the
governorship contest. This is primarily because he has enormous
financial backing to embark on grassroots campaigns but the long
drawn campaign against Okorocha’s plan to impose his son-in-law,
Uche, on Imo people may be the major challenge for the youthful
politician. The fear is that most of the people, who would have
voted for him ordinarily, may deny him of their votes as protest
against the outgoing governor’s brand of politics. Whatever is the
case, the fortune of Uche and his party, AA, in the governorship
election is of special interest to all informed observers of Imo
State politics today. During the National Assembly and Presidential
elections however, AA in Imo is practically nonexistent.

Unlike Nwosu’s AA, which is a child of recent circumstances, the
other major parties have strong roots in Imo. It would be recalled
governed it for eight years. However, Amaechi’s erstwhile political
son, Nyesom Wike’s emergence as the state governor, on the ticket
of PDP against Amaechi’s support, not only returned the state to
PDP but marked the beginning of a gripping political rivalry that
has held the breathe of Nigerians.

Because Amaechi, the current Minister of Transportation is also
both the Director-General of Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential
Re-election Campaign and also the leader of ruling APC in the state
and the whole of the South-south zone, the expectation is high that
he ought to ensure APC’s victory in his state in all the elections.
Both because of the high offices he currently occupies and the fact
that it has become a personal battle between him and his former
ally, the permutation has been that Amaechi will put in all he has
both to deliver Rivers to Buhari and to reclaim his position as the
political leader of Rivers.

Paradoxically, the same pressure is on Governor Nyesom Wike to
deliver Rivers to PDP. Those who followed the political battle from
the onset can recall that Wike enjoyed unalloyed support of the
former First Family, the Jonathans, when he contested for the
office of the governor of the state against the endorsement of
Amaechi.

Since then, the two rivals have further tightened their belts,
thus making the struggle for the soul of Rivers even more
arduous.

The matter was further complicated the upper weekend when the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) omitted APC
candidates as it released the final list of Presidential and
National Assembly Elections candidates.

Observers said the implication of non-inclusion of the APC
candidates on the list is that the party would not partake in the
elections in the state. If this is true, it would mean that APC and
Amaechi had been defeated technically.

INEC had explained that the decision was hinged on the fact that
the APC failed to conduct primaries for the National Assembly,
governorship and State Assembly elections, adding that the October
7, 2018 deadline had lapsed.

The State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Obo Effanga, said the
decision to exclude the APC candidates was in line with a court
order that directed the electoral umpire to do so.

But APC has not given up, especially because the two factions of
the Rivers State APC reportedly assured their members that their
candidates will contest the 2019 general elections.

Mr. Chris Finebone, the Publicity Secretary of the Rivers State
APC loyal to the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, and
Peter Odike, the factional Chairman of the Magnus Abe-led APC, were
quoted in separate interviews as urging their members “to be calm,”
promising that “the party at the state level would contest the
forthcoming elections.”

Odike said, “We are winning our appeal and after the appeal,
INEC will come out with another list and publish it. Time is not
against it because 30th (of January) is the last day.”

Finebone said “I am not worried about time; the court is aware
of the need for time. So, they will be expeditious with it. We are
hopeful that they (court) will do the needful within the time. We
are hopeful that at the end, INEC will publish a list with our
candidates,” he said.

When and if the current problem is resolved, the elections would
remain a two-horse race between Wike-led PDP, which enjoys
incumbency factor and Amaechi-led APC, which is the ruling party at
the centre. These two political leaders and other top politicians,
like Tonye Cole, Senator Magnus Abe, both of APC, and the Rivers
State Chairman of the PDP, Mr. Felix Obuah, are expected to play
major roles in influencing the result of all the forthcoming
elections in the state this year.

If APC succeeds in resolving the legal issues that caused INEC
to omit its candidates in its current lists, both the governorship
race in the state and the other elections would be hotly
contested.

While Wike-led PDP will base its campaign on its performance in
the last four years, the need to allow Wike to consolidate them and
the need to enthrone a PDP-led Federal Government, Amaechi-led APC,
which has consistently harped on the need to respect zoning equity,
will still call on the electorates to vote for what it describes as
‘fairness’ and ‘equity, not only in the state but also at the
presidential election.’ The contest would be hot as the two parties
and their captains are formidable and well financed.

It would be recalled that in 2015 the race was also a two horse
race between PDP and APC. In spite of the hot exchanges of words
and field rivalries, Wike-led PDP won the governorship with high
margin.

Wike was declared winner after polling a total of 1,029,102
votes amounting to 87.77 percent to beat Dr. Dakuku Peterside of
the All Progressives Congress, APC who got 124,896 votes or 10.65
percent to come a distant second. The Returning Officer, Prof
Faraday Oruwense, who announced the results said that Prince Tonye
Princewill of the Labour Party (LP) then, came third as he polled
10,142 (0.86 per cent).

It remains to be seen if the scenario will be repeated as the
same politicians are still at in today’s contests.

However, the window for a judicial reprieve for APC and its
candidates has become very narrow. All the rulings so far have gone
against it. Were the status quo to remain, it would be advantage
PDP as APC supporters would be disillusioned have little motivation
to come out and vote. This could negatively impact Buhari’s
performance in the state.

Verdict: PDP to win.

DELTA STATE

The general elections in Delta, which has remained a PDP state
since 1999, will also be interesting. Given that the party has
continued to grow under the leadership of Governor Arthur Ifeanyi
Okowa of PDP, there is the tendency to speculate that PDP would
still win this year’s elections there.

It would be recalled that out of the 1,267,773 valid votes cast
in the state during the 2015 presidential election, PDP got
1,211,405 votes, while APC got 48,910 votes.

That year also, the party won the governorship election with a
great margin.

The Returning Officer for the election, Prof. Bio Nyananyo, had
announced in Asaba that Okowa won the election as he polled 724,680
votes to beat his closest rival, Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour
Party then, who got 130,028 votes, while Chief O’tega Emerhor of
APC then made the third position with 67,825 votes.

Looking at these figures, one would ordinarily write off any
party contesting with the ruling party, PDP, in Delta.

But today, so much has happened in the politics of the state,
especially within the opposition APC. For example, the defection of
the former governor of the state, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, to APC
last year is considered a major plus for APC.

But informed observers wonder if such gains are enough to defeat
PDP leadership in the state and win votes for Buhari?

Also, Great Ogboru, who came second in 2015, with Labour Party,
then a less popular party, is now flying the APC flag. This will be
a big boost for APC both for the governorship and the presidential
election.

If one adds Ogboru’s factor and Uduaghan’s influence, it seems
certain that APC is poised to do better than it did in 2015 in
Delta, when it came third.

However, the disagreement in the APC during the run-up to the
primaries may still affect the performance of the party in the
forthcoming elections. It would be recalled that the faction led by
Prophet Jones Erue and loyal to Senator Ovie Omo-Agege and Chief
Great Ogboru had openly opposed direct primaries while the other
APC faction in the state loyal to Olorogun Otega Emerhor and Chief
Hyacinth Enuha threw its weight behind the state and presidential
direct primaries in the state.

The final resolution of this disagreement will remain a vital
key to the performance of the party as no one can doubt the fact
that the unity of influential politicians like Great Ogboru,
Uduaghan, Omo-Agege and Otega Emerhor, if sustained, will give
Okowa-led ruling PDP a major challenge.

However, some sources said PDP still stands a great chance of
retaining the state and giving Atiku majority votes, especially
because of perceived reconciliation of Okowa and PDP strongman in
the state, former Governor James Ibori. The sources said Ibori’s
supporters still cut across the entire South-south state and are
ever ready to be influenced by the former governor.

It still remains to be seen how true this claim is and to what
extent it would single handedly determine the outcome of this
year’s presidential and governorship elections.

Verdict: PDP to win

AKWA IBOM

Beyond ongoing rhetorics between the two leading political
parties in the state, the 2019 General Election in Akwa Ibom State
will be nothing short of a political battle for the very soul of
the state, pundits have predicted. For the very first time since
the nation’s return to democracy in 1999, the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP), which has been in charge of the governance of the oil-
rich state, is seriously being challenged by an opposition party in
the race for the political leadership of the state.

Going by recent political events in the state, it is very
convenient to say both the PDP and the APC are well rooted in the
nooks and crannies of the state, no thanks to the political
division between former Governor Godswill Akpabio and his erstwhile
political godson, current Governor Udom Gabriel Emmanuel. Following
the unexpected decision by the former, who was also the Minority
Leader of the Senate at the time, to dump the PDP and pitch his
tent with the All Progressives Congress (APC), the political
permutations in the state have changed drastically.

Before Akpabio’s political disengagement with the PDP, the state
was a PDP stronghold in every sense of the word. Apart from the
fact that the party has been in charge of the state since 1999, no
opposition party had recorded any meaningful performance against
the PDP in any major election before now. Across the state, the
people have over the years, largely associated with the PDP save
for pockets of opposition figures here and there.

But with the defection of Akpabio and his political family into
the APC, reliable sources across the state say the politics of the
state is now symbolized by a sharp division of the people into PDP
supporters and APC supporters. “Something unprecedented is
happening in Akwa Ibom. Everywhere you turn to, you now find
supporters of both the PDP and the APC slugging it out, unlike in
the past when the PDP was the family party of the people of the
state,” a journalist working in the state said.

The competition between the two political parties is further
heightened by the fact that both Akpabio and his former godson,
Emmanuel, will be on the ballot paper as candidates in this year’s
general elections but on the platform of different political
parties. While Emmanuel is seeking to be re-elected as the governor
of the state, Akpabio wants to remain in the senate as the
representative of the people of Akwa-Ibom northwest.

In 2015, the duo worked together as PDP candidates and won in
convincing manners. This time around, their camp is divided and
they are at loggerheads politically. Thus, Akpabio and the APC will
be relying on the former governor’s political machinery across the
state, aided by the political influence of other APC chieftains
like Umanah Umanah, Nsima Ekere (a former deputy governor), John
Akpan Udoedehe, Don Etiebet, Ime Umana, Group Capt. Sam Ewang
(Retd), among others, to carry the day.

For Emmanuel and the ruling PDP who will be entering the ring
with the statewide support they enjoyed from Akpabio’s camp in
2015, their major strength will lie in the power of incumbency and
the ability to showcase the achievements of the current
administration to the people of the state. “Emmanuel has tried in
delivering the dividends of democracy to the people. These are the
things the PDP will have to hammer on as they confront Akpabio’s
popularity,” our source added.

But the APC in the state insists that with N6.85 billion annual
Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and N143. 6 billion from the
Federation Account, not forgetting extra-statutory intervention
funds like Ecological funds, Paris Club Loan refunds, etc., the
current administration in the state has not done much to better the
lot of the people. “Without Akpabio helping them to explain away
their non-performance, Emmanuel and the PDP have nothing to tell
the people of Akwa Ibom State,” another source quipped.

Across the three senatorial districts of Uyo (Akwa-Ibom
northeast), Ikot Ekpene (Akwa-Ibom northwest) and Eket (Akwa-Ibom
south), political analysts, candidates, party chieftains and the
voters are daily coming up with permutations on how the
governorship elections would be won and lost by the two leading
political parties, PDP and APC, and their governorship candidates,
Emmanuel and Ekere respectively.

Akwa Ibom has 31 local government areas. While Eket, where both
Emmanuel and Ekere hail from has 12 local government areas,
Akpabio’s Ikot Ekpene boasts of 10 council areas. The remaining
nine are found in Uyo District where former Governor Victor Attah
and Umanah hail from. At the last count, there are 1,837, 767
registered voters in the three senatorial districts of the
state.

According to very reliable political permutations, the PDP and
APC will keenly contest for the votes of the people of Akwa-Ibom
South Senatorial District. It is unclear who is likely to win the
zone between the two leading parties given the parity in popularity
of both in the area. “It is too close to call for APC and PDP in
Akwa Ibom South because both Governor Udom Emmanuel and Nsima Ekere
the APC candidate hail from there. The people will obviously be
divided in their choice,” an analyst said.

But it was also gathered that the desire of the people to take
advantage of an opportunity for their zone to enjoy the
governorship slot much longer, provided by the candidacy of Ekere,
may somehow work in favour of the APC. “There are talks that voting
Ekere may give Eket the chance to spend 12 years instead of eight
years in office as governor. If this informs the people’s voting
behavior on Election Day, PDP may be in trouble in Governor
Emmanuel’s own backyard,” an analyst said.

The APC is most likely to sweep the votes in Akwa Ibom Northwest
Senatorial District where Senator Akpabio is the undisputed leader.
The APC chieftain, who is the current senator representing the
area, enjoys the support of the people and has a well- equipped,
structured and effective political machinery across the zone that
is now working hard to deliver the votes to Ekere and the APC. The
PDP, since Akpabio’s exit, has no serious presence in the zone.

The Northeastern Senatorial District is another battleground
where both APC and PDP will slug it out evenly. However, pundits
say with Umanah supporting Ekere, the APC may slightly outperform
PDP in the zone, “slightly because Uyo is also the seat of
government and Emmanuel has many of his people resident there.
While Umanah’s popularity in Uyo will aid APC, PDP should benefit
from the votes of government functionaries and their people,” a
source explained.

Given these clear cut divisions, it seems certain that the
National Assembly elections may also follow the pattern. Also,
PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and APC’s candidate,
President Muhammadu Buhari, will share the votes in the
presidential election. Excluding the few votes less popular
candidates may get in that election; the major votes would be
shared by the two, almost equally. If PDP’s Atiku manages to get
more votes, the margin may not be much. The actual score will
however be determined by developments within the remaining days
before the Election Day. What has become certain is that all the
elections would be hot unlike what it used to be in the state.

Verdict: Battleground.

OGUN STATE

Developments suggest that the forthcoming general elections in
Ogun State will feature unusual contests.

Notwithstanding the support of former President Olusegun
Obasanjo for the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku
Abubakar, investigations show that the APC candidate, President
Buhari, stands the chance of winning the presidential election in
the state with convincing margin. This is because in spite of the
unusual political ripples, APC’s candidate evidently enjoys massive
support from the state.

But when it comes to the governorship election, it will
certainly not be as straight forward as this. Unlike in the past
when the state’s unwritten political zoning agreement played a role
in determining the emergence of the candidates of the leading
parties, powerful political gladiators from all the four zones of
the state are now locking horns in the contest that will determine
who succeeds outgoing Governor Ibikunle Amosun.

On the candidates’ list released by the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC), oil magnate, Dapo Abiodun from Iperu
in the Remo axis of Ogun East, is the candidate of the All
Progressives Congress (APC) while Senator Buruji Kashamu,
representing Ogun East Senatorial District in the National
Assembly, is the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP).

Also on the list of candidates released by INEC are, Egba-born
former Speaker of House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole as flag
bearer of the Action Democratic Party (ADP) and a two-time
governorship candidate, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, who now flies the
ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Isiaka, who is
from Yewa in Ogun West, was the candidate of the PDP in 2015.
Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) is also in
the race from Yewaland.

In addition to this, the internal crisis that is troubling the
ruling APC, following Governor Amosun’s controversial decision to
oppose the ambition of Dapo Abiodun, the party’s gubernatorial
candidate and support his preferred successor, Adekunle Akinlade of
the little known APM, has also heightened the political situation
in the state while weakening the support bases of the APC across
the state in the guber contest.

Also, the emergence of Hon. Ladi Adebutu as factional candidate
of the opposition PDP amidst endless litigations and violent
clashes between the two factions of the party in the state, has
added to the uncertainties surrounding the governorship race in
Ogun State. While INEC, as electoral umpire, says Kashamu remains
on its list of candidates, the PDP national leadership recognizes
Adebutu as its candidate.

INEC said it is obeying a valid court judgement by recognising
the list submitted to it by Kashamu’s faction of the opposition
party in the state. But Adebutu, who had earlier been named as the
candidate by the national leadership of the party, while relying on
an Ibadan Appeal Court judgement, is insisting that he is the
rightful flag-bearer of the opposition party. In a bizarre twist of
the crisis in the party, the two ‘candidates’ have been going about
campaigning, with their supporters clashing regularly.

With the above scenario, the 2019 governorship in Ogun State is
playing out as a war of zones, as all the four zones in the state
are now having at least one major candidate in the race. This is
contrary to the desire of Governor Amosun and other notable
political leaders in the state, including former President Olusegun
Obasanjo, to restrict the race to a contest between candidates from
the Yewa axis of the state.

The Ogun West Senatorial District is yet to produce a governor
since 1976 when the state was created, and Amosun was determined to
break the jinx. He campaigned vigorously for the ticket of the APC
to be zoned to the area and he almost achieved that before the
party’s NWC overruled his consensus arrangement and ordered a
direct primary election which Dapo Abiodun, from Remoland, a zone
in Ogun East Senatorial District, won.

The PDP from day one never zoned the governorship ticket to Ogun
West. Both factions of the party in the state seem to have their
eyes on producing a candidate from Ogun East too, as no serious
contender emerged from Ogun West and Central all through the
process leading to the primary elections of the Adebutu and Kashamu
factions of the PDP.

Like Abiodun, Kashamu is from Ogun East and currently represents
the district at the National Assembly. But he is from Ijebuland,
another zone in the area which has also been clamoring to be given
a chance to produce the governor of the state, 36 years after the
late Bisi Onabanjo, its only son to have been governor of the
state, left office. His supporters say Abiodun from Remo cannot be
governor just eight years after Gbenga Daniel, another Remo man,
left office.

From Ogun Central, made up of the Egbas, former Speaker Dimeji
Bankole is in the race. He is unperturbed by the fact that outgoing
governor Amosun is from the same zone as himself. He says zoning
should not rob the state of the best hands for the job. The
congress that produced him took place in all the 20 Local
Government Areas and 236 wards in the state, according to the
Returning Officer for the primary election, Mr. Chamberlain
Amadu.

Not to be left out, the Yewas of Ogun West, preferred by Amosun
and other opinion leaders to have the seat, have Isiaka in the
race, but on the platform of little known ADC, having failed to bag
the ticket of any of the two leading political parties. Akinlade,
the preferred candidate of Governor Amosun, had defected from the
ruling APC to the APM, to keep the Yewa agenda alive.

Examining the voting populations of the various zones, analysts
say if the people of the four autonomous clans decide to vote along
tribal lines, the contest may not be decided on the first ballot.
“And it is most likely the electorates will put tribal
consideration on the front burner on Election Day, given the
acrimonious and sectional campaign currently going on,” Joju Daini
of Voters Right Agenda (VRA), told The Nation.

“Ogun East with nine local government areas lost the chance of
having an edge over the other two zones following the emergence of
candidates from the two zones in the area. So, its majority
population will be shared by its two sons, Abiodun and Kashamu of
APC and PDP respectively. They are however helped by the fact that
they are candidates of the two leading political parties.

“Ogun Central with five local government have only Dimeji
Bankole in the race. But he will be contending with the popularity
of both APC and PDP in his zone. While he is expected to enjoy the
solidarity of his people, the unpopular nature of his party, the
ADP in the state, will rob him of a landslide win the Egbaland. No
doubt, he will share the lot with the candidates of widely known
APC and PDP.

“The same will be the fate of Isiaka in Ogun West. He will
benefit immensely from the clamor of his people for the
governorship but ADC as a party is the major challenge to his
victory in the race. Chieftains of the ruling APC, which is quite
strong in the area, has refused to endorse his candidacy contrary
to expectations in the zone. Instead, Akinlade, Amosun’s preferred
candidate, has joined the APM as its governorship candidate,” Daini
analyzed.

But some pundits say this is convenient to say though the
contest will be keen, the APC will win the election at the end of
the day. They based their position on the weakened position of the
PDP, the main opposition party and the inability of Governor Amosun
and his political camp to openly canvass votes for Akinlade of the
APM. “To add to this is the Osinbajo factor. Although based in
Lagos, the Vice President hails from Ikenne-Remo in the Eastern
Senatorial District of the state. It is expected that his kinsmen
from Remoland and other parts of the state will because of him,
support and vote for the APC candidates in the general
election.

Verdict: APC to win presidential poll. Governorship election is
too close call and could even go to a run-off if none of the
leading candidates meet the requirements for outright victory.

KWARA STATE

The state is a major focus point because the threat to the
status quo as symbolized by Saraki Dynasty is real. Although the
scion of the dynasty, Senate President Bukola Saraki, may be
travelling about with the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku
Abubakar, there is fire on the mountain at home.

The spate of violence in the past two weeks underscored the
prevalent do-or-die politics in the state. While the ruling PDP
does not want to relinquish its grip on power, the wind of change
blowing from the direction of the APC has been like a Tsunami.

Analysts see the electoral map here as fluid with the three
senatorial districts left open to be won either by PDP or APC.

None of the two leading parties can boast of an outright win in
any district. Saraki, who represents Kwara Central Senatorial
District, has a date with his closest rival, Dr. Ibrahim Oloriegbe,
who was a former member of the State House of Assembly. The contest
is reminiscent of the duel between David and Goliath. For
Oloriegbe, who was once a product of the dynasty, his record of
selfless service as a medic and as well as coming from a respected
family, will make the contest tough. His greatest advantage is the
mass discontent against the Sarakis.

Despite the power of incumbency and over reliance on money
politics, it won’t be an easy ride for Saraki in Kwara Central
District. In the last one month, the Senate President has retreated
to fault lines for political survival and to retool his campaign
machinery, but the people of Ilorin Emirate who dominate the
district, are now sharply divided for and against him.

What will count against Saraki include the collapse of
governance in the state in the last four years; poor state of
infrastructure; non-payment of local government workers’ salaries;
the conspiracy of the elites; sheer flaunting of affluence by
political leaders in the state; the exodus of his loyalists and
strategists to APC; the “O To Ge” (Enough is Enough) revolution;
and the imposition of PDP governorship candidate, Razak Atunwa, on
the party.

In Kwara North, it is a battle royale between the PDP candidate,
Hon. Zakari Mohammed (the incumbent member of the House of
Representatives for Baruten/Kaiama Constituency) and the APC
candidate, a pharmacist and erstwhile expert in DFID, Sadiq Umar.
The two candidates are credible and tested professionals. But what
will determine the direction of the district is the politics of
power shift. The people of the district are unhappy with Saraki for
denying them governorship slot in the past 20 years. The last time
the district tasted gubernatorial power was between 1991 and 1993
when Senator Sha’aba Lafiagi was elected into office. Despite plans
by Saraki dynasty to enter into a gentleman agreement with the
district on power shift in 2023, they are unprepared to trust
him.

Were it not for the last minute retrieval of the senatorial
ticket from Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed for Sen. Rafiu Ibrahim by
Saraki, Kwara South District would have been a walkover for APC.
Even at that, Ibrahim faces likely electoral defeat because of the
influence of his opponent, Lola Ashiru – an architect.

Factors that may swing electoral behavior this time include the
looming protest votes from Offa and its environs over the recent
bank robbery which claimed many lives; the spiral effect of losing
Irepodun/ Ekiti/ Isin, Oke-Ero Federal Constituency to APC; and the
neglect of the district in the scheme of things. The Ibolo, the
Igbomina and the Ekiti in this district naturally detest the
politics of the Sarakis.

All these factors in each district will be at play as voters
choose between Atunwa and the APC governorship candidate, Alhaji
Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, who is an oil magnate.

Verdict: Too close to call.

KOGI STATE

How the APC will wriggle out of its political quagmire in Kogi
State is a development political scientists are watching with keen
interest. The party will have to contest with others in February
for the Presidential, National and State Assembly polls and in
November for the governorship seat.

The ghost of the late Governor Abubakar Audu is still haunting
APC and Governor Yahaya Bello, who has tried to re-write history
after benefitting from Audu’s mandate.

Out of the three senatorial districts, APC remains solid in Kogi
Central which is largely populated by the governor’s Ebira kinsmen.
There had been a few protests against Bello in the Central district
but the governor has engaged in arm-twisting and outright political
witch-hunting to retain his grip.

But the party needs extra salesmen to regain the confidence of
Kogi East (Audu’s fortress) in the next strands of election. The
management of the aftermath of Audu’s death – including the
hounding of his son – looks set to hurt the ruling party.

Most retired civil servants/ teachers (pensioners) are from Kogi
West and in the last three and a half years, they have gone through
hell trying to collect their gratuities and pensions. The same Kogi
West secured the deputy governorship slot but its candidate, Hon.
James Faleke was uncomfortable with the power equation. Faleke’s
loyalty to Audu appeared to be a “wise” decision because he would
have ended being a glorified deputy in a despotic Bello
government.

The tactical senatorial nominations of Jibrin Echocho (APC
candidate for Kogi East) and Senator Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West) have
succeeded in bridging the gaps between the ruling party and the
people of the state. Also, the travails of Senator Dino Melaye have
left the Kogi West with no alternative than to shop for an amenable
candidate in Adeyemi in order to get value for their votes.

Melaye’s confrontational politics with the centre has largely
denied Kogi West of any meaningful dividends of democracy. His
running battle with the Nigeria Police Force over attempted murder
will no doubt distract his campaign and reduce the visibility of
PDP in the district.

Ruling Kogi with an iron fist is perhaps Bello’s greatest
undoing. The governor also adopted a cabal system of administration
which has virtually ceded executive powers to his Chief of Staff,
Mr. Edward Onoja, who appears to be the defacto governor/ deputy
governor. If attitude counts in politics, Bello won’t be able to
secure more than 30% of the votes for APC.

Kogi is a state to watch because its people want to ‘change the
change.’ It is also a hot spot as it is evident that violence may
likely take the center stage.

Verdict: Battleground

BAUCHI STATE

Within two weeks, the political calculations in Bauchi State
have changed with PDP losing most of its heavyweights to APC.
Although Governor Mohammed Abubakar was initially opposed by the
elites in the state, the intervention of President Buhari and
members of the ruling mafia in the North have altered the dynamics
significantly.

Many PDP bigwigs in the last 15 days have defected to APC, among
them a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Yayale
Ahmed; a former National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu; ex-Governor
Isa Yuguda; ex-Deputy National Chairman of PDP, Senator Babayo
Garba Gamawa; a former Deputy Governor, Abdulmalik Mahmood; Kaulaha
Aliyu; a former National Organizing Secretary of PDP, Dr. Musa
Babayo; Senator Abubakar Maikafi and Ambassador Adamu Jumba.

The PDP has the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu
Dogara, as the arrowhead of its campaign in the state. Being a
minority Christian, his comments and conspiracy in the National
Assembly against the president have diminished the chances of the
main opposition party because the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy cannot
understand why the Speaker would join forces against Buhari.

Despite the fact that the PDP governorship candidate, ex-FCT
Minister Bala Mohammed, has done so much to gain mileage for the
party, the state may witness a relapse to old Hausa-Fulani/Muslim
versus minority/Christian voting pattern.

The ex-minister has empowered many, offered scholarship,
renovated mosques and won the hearts of many. But Dogara and his
colleagues in the National Assembly from Bauchi State have proved
to be more of liabilities than assets to PDP.

Yet Bauchi State is under watch in order to see the magic wand
the new generation of leaders led by Dogara, will deploy to upstage
these APC bigwigs. A source said: “PDP is banking on poor
performance of the governor as a major campaign issue.”

Verdict: Leaning APC

BENUE STATE

All the parties have a huge task at hand to take their campaign
to the nooks and crannies of 23 local government areas in the
state. The politics has largely been personality-based, but has
also been coloured by economics, ethnicity and religion in the
light of the herdsmen killings witnessed in the last two to three
years.

With over 70 per cent of the people dependent on agriculture,
the farmers-herders crises had affected and displaced thousands of
peasants in the rural areas from the dominant ethnic groups
especially the Tiv, the Idoma and the Igede.

Governor Samuel Ortom has capitalized on the farmers-herders
crises as a weapon to secure his second term ticket. The
anti-Fulani sentiments in the state have grown to the extent that
President Buhari and APC are despised.

Ortom went a step further in the week to apologize to the people
of the state for leading them to APC in 2015. The joining of forces
by Ortom and ex-Governor Gabriel Suswam, who has an axe to grind
for being put on trial for alleged corruption by the APC
administration, has made the PDP more formidable.

The scenario in the state is being monitored because the three
senators from the state, who are leaders with massive support in
the grassroots, are treading different political paths. They are
Senator David Mark (Benue South); Senator Barnabas Gemade (Benue
North-East) and Senator George Akume (Benue North-West).

While Akume is sticking to APC, Mark remains in PDP with his
ally ex-Minister Abba Moro now taking his slot, and Gemade is
trying his luck in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) after
defecting first from APC and then PDP in quick order.

Of the three senators, only Akume has a herculean task at hand
to sell APC to the people of the state who are angry over the
consequences of farmers-herders crises. He needs to work harder to
retain his senatorial seat for the fourth term since 2007 and to
install his political associate, Emmanuel Jime, as the governor of
the state.

He has a tall order to assert himself as the “political
godfather” of the state. As a leader with tremendous goodwill, if
Akume succeeds he will book a place in the Guinness Book of Records
as a great politician. Any loss might be the beginning of his
political retirement.

Verdict: Battleground leaning towards PDP.

KADUNA STATE

The battle in Kaduna State is purely of an ethno- religious
dimension and it is already taking this shape. In fact, the
Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, alluded to it in a
television interview when he said the people of Kaduna South
District, comprising eight local government areas will not vote for
him because they see APC as an Islamic party.

The local governments in Kaduna South are Jema’a, Jaba, Kaura,
Zangon Kataf, Kauru, Kachia, Kagarko, and Sanga. The APC is banking
on highly Muslim populated Kaduna North and Central districts for
votes. Kaduna Central includes Birnin Gwari, Giwa, Igabi, Kaduna
North, Kaduna South, Chikun and Kajuru. Kaduna North comprises
Kubau, Ikara, Makarfi, Soba, Sabon Gari, Zaria, Lere and Kudan.

Intriguingly, the party is offering a Muslim-Muslim governorship
ticket in a state notorious for sectarian conflict. In defence of
this seemingly politically incorrect move, El-Rufai said: “What if
I tell you that no matter who I choose as my running mate, even if
I choose the Pope, 67 per cent of the Christians in Southern Kaduna
have made up their minds that they will never vote for me. This is
what the polls show.

“So for me, that is not the issue. The issue is this: Kaduna
State is divided; it needs to be united. The way to begin to unite
it is to take religion or ethnicity off the table. Since 1992,
every deputy governor of Kaduna has been a Christian. What has it
done for the state? Has it united the state? Has it assuaged the
feelings of the Christian minority that they are part of the
government?

“My current deputy governor is a Christian and I didn’t pick him
because he is Christian, I picked him because we were colleagues
from university and I know him to be a brilliant, focused and just
man; but did that change anything? In fact, what it did was to
bring disrespect to him. No one respected him in Southern Kaduna
because he is in what they call an Islamic party. So, there are
complicated issues in Kaduna which people sitting from a distance
will not understand.”

A source in the state said: “The Muslim-Muslim ticket might look
insensitive, it appears politically expedient now for APC to win
huge votes in view of how a Bishop from Kaduna South teamed up to
reconcile ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and PDP presidential
candidate, Atiku Abubakar. The reconciliation paved the way for the
emergence of Atiku.”

Verdict: APC to win .

KANO STATE

With available votes of 5.4 million, Kano State attracts special
attention because any party which secures a huge chunk of its votes
can coast home to victory at the presidential poll. In 2015, the
APC presidential candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari won
1,903,999 votes in Kano compared with PDP’s 215, 799 votes garnered
by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan.

The exit of ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso from APC to PDP is
expected to improve the fortunes of the opposition party. But
Kwankwaso’s defection has left PDP more divided due to the
imposition of his son-in-law, Abba Kabiru Yusuf, as the party’s
governorship candidate.

Also, many foot soldiers of Kwankwaso, who made the huge vote
haul possible in 2015 have refused to leave APC. A few others who
followed him to PDP have retraced their steps back to APC. They
include Professor Hafiz Abubakar, a former deputy governor to
Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, a former Managing Director of the
Nigerian Ports Authority, Aminu Dabo; the immediate past National
Treasurer of PDP, Bala Mohammed Gwagwarwa; Security Adviser to
Kwankwaso, General Danjuma Dambazzau (rtd); Sen. Isa Zarewa; and
Mu’azu Magaji Dan Sarauniya, who was a former Senior Special
Assistant to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan on SURE-P.

In February, the onus will be on Kwankwaso to prove that he
controls the politics of Kano by installing a new governor and
prove to the world that he can still deliver more than 1,903,999
votes to PDP.

How the opposition presidential candidate will defeat Buhari in
Kano is a big hurdle and litmus test. Without Kwankwaso’s support,
Buhari has always earned appreciable votes in Kano. For Governor
Ganduje, who has an outstanding corruption allegation against him,
he is savouring the moment because Kwankwaso’s travails work in his
favour.

Verdict: APC to win.

ADAMAWA STATE

The people of the state are caught between two choices of
producing a home-bred president or voting for their son-in-law
Buhari to remain in office. This is a testy moment for Atiku more
than Buhari because he has a lot at stake. If he defeats Buhari in
Adamawa, he would boost his political profile as primus inter pares
in the state. But if Atiku suffers any setback, he would join the
league of the likes of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo who lost in
his home state.

The performance of Governor Jibrilla Bindow (from a minority
tribe) has added value to Buhari’s campaign. Also, the nomination
of game changers like Senator Binta Mashi and Hajiya Aishatu Ahmed
Binani and other mobilizers at the grassroots have made winning the
state an uphill task for Atiku.

Our findings show that the governorship candidate of PDP, Umaru
Fintiri, popularly called “The ATM” by civil servants due to prompt
payment of salaries when he was Acting Governor of the state, has
made the turf tougher. Fintiri is giving Bindow an electioneering
headache because of ‘the ATM perception’. The governor, for his
part, has been prudent and he has performed creditably than most of
his successors.

Verdict: APC to win.

TARABA STATE

Ordinarily, Governor Darius Ishaku and the PDP are not expected
to sweat for victory in February because power rotation in the
state favours Southern Zone where Ishaku hails from. Since 1999,
Taraba North and Central districts had held powers and in
compliance with the unwritten pact among stakeholders in the state,
the governor ought to spend two terms in office to complete the
slot of the Southern zone.

But the emergence of a former Minister of Women Affairs and
Social Development, Aisha Alhassan and former Acting Governor of
the state, Sani Danladi, as the candidates of United Democratic
Party (UDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) respectively,
are threatening the power sharing formula in the state. Both
Alhassan and Danladi are from Taraba North which produced the state
governor (jailed Jolly Nyame) from 1999 to 2007. Nyame’s successor,
the late Danbaba Suntai, was from Taraba Central.

The development has ignited ethnic and religious politics in the
heterogeneous state. The major tribes in Taraba are Jenjo, Jibana,
Kuteb, Chamba, Yandang, Mumuye, Mambila, Wurkum, Fulani, Jukun,
Ichen, Tiv, Kaka, Panso, Kambu, Wawa, Vute, Tikari, Hausa and
Ndola.

Taraba is in focus because this year’s election outcome will be
determined by the spate of insecurity occasioned by farmers-herders
clashes, the inter-tribal conflicts like Tiv-Jukun crisis, the
Hausa-Fulani factor, religious sentiments and performance of the
current governor.

The PDP may also have a working alliance with UDP during the
presidential poll because Alhassan is a die-hard loyalist of Atiku
Abubakar.

The recourse to political violence in the last few days has
baffled many prompting fears that the state is a battleground to
watch.

Verdict: PDP to win.