Pendulum : Why Are People Doubting Buhari’s Third Term Denial? By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, I don’t know about you, but I find the
cynicism of many Nigerians very strange and sometimes distressing
and depressing. If you’re a social media addict like me, you must
have experienced the horror of reading some banal arguments on some
platforms. Believe me, it is no longer funny! No surprise that some
wonder wonder legislator has decided that hate speech must not only
be legislated out of existence but made a capital offence so that
horrible death awaits the purveyors of such filth, not minding the
constitutional guarantee of Nigerians to freedom of speech and
expression.

Everywhere you turn, on the internet and even in the print and
electronic media, you will be assailed and assaulted by all manner
of conspiracy theories. We seem to have all become ‘doubting
Thomases’. Just in case you’re not familiar with the story behind
that popular phrase, let me regurgitate it here. It is a Biblical
tale that can be found in the book of John 20: 24-29. According to
the account, Apostle Thomas was totally sceptical about the
resurrection of Jesus Christ, after he was told by his ten other
Apostles that Jesus had already appeared to them. Thomas Paine, one
of my favourite authors of all time, ironically, says the original
Thomas was not a doubter but an unbeliever, suggesting that his was
not a situation of doubt, but one of total disbelief. He went on to
differentiate between the two in his seminal masterpiece, The Age
of Reason. According to Paine, an unbeliever has no iota of faith
or belief in him whereas a doubter still has some redeemable
faith.

This scenario is what I think is playing out in Nigeria right
now. Despite copious denials from the President and the Presidency
about President Muhammadu Buhari’s lack of interest in elongating
his stay in power by any means possible. If there is one thing I
know the President does not joke with, it is his faith in Islam.
The President even swore by the Holy Koran that he will never go
against the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria by
doing the unthinkable. Yet people are saying they don’t believe the
series of denials emanating from his camp or even the Man
himself.

One must ask why not a few Nigerians have refused to budge on
the matter. As for me, I believe there is no way President Buhari
can wake up tomorrow and reverse these public statements. I would
be astonished to see which mouth he will use to tell us that he is
under pressure, as some have suggested he will do, and that he has
thus changed his mind and has decided to run again or simply extend
his term of office. To be honest, it will shock me to the marrow.
Notwithstanding his foibles and weaknesses, I still cling to the
belief that he is a man of honour and integrity, probably the last
saint standing in Nigeria. I have thought long and hard about the
possibility of him looking at us with a straight poker face and
saying I want to contest again or stay for a little while longer.
The President may sometimes have a taciturn, inscrutable
expression, but I doubt that even he could carry this one off
without looking sheepishly guilty.

But the unbelieving Thomases of Nigeria have said they see
Buhari contesting in 2023 or even thereafter despite the sporadic
denials. Perhaps it is worth considering their uncharitable
contentions. So, what are their arguments.

Possibly the strongest argument, is their claim that in fact we
must take Buhari’s strident and passionate denials at no more than
face level. They contend that Buhari’s saintliness would not be
tainted or tarnished because he would not have broken his promise.
He would not be breaking any Law or reneging on his words as long
as he finds a way to change the Constitution. Simply put, what the
President had said was that he will never do anything
unconstitutional, but not that he will never change or alter the
Constitution and thus be acting unconstitutionally if there is
tenure elongation or a third term or both added to the
Constitution. Is it that some of us who see this as preposterous,
nay impossible, are plainly naive or even stupid?

The unbelieving Thomases are pointing to their imaginary
tell-tale signs. The first is that Buhari has refused to change the
military Chiefs who have definitely overstayed their welcome and
are certainly not as effective as to justify their being
over-pampered by the State, thus depriving some of our young Turks
the opportunity of demonstrating how they can positively change the
narrative of our security challenges. But I refuse to see any big
deal. The President himself is a retired General of the Nigerian
Army, one of the most accomplished soldiers Nigeria ever had. He
definitely knows more about military strategy than most of us
combined. I believe we simply lack the competence and experience to
challenge him on matters of security, even if his knowledge and
experience were gained in yesteryears or what some have taken to
describing as the dark and arcane days of the mid-20th century.

The unbelieving Thomases also point at the fact that the top
security echelon of Nigeria comes from President Buhari’s part of
the country and this can only mean that he feels he would need them
to support him, by fire by force, one day sooner rather than later.
As tempting as the argument might be, I still maintain my lane that
our people are just crying wolves where there are none.

The unbelieving Thomases believe it is very easy to change the
Nigerian Constitution now that Nigerians have been totally cowed by
President Buhari and no one, including the tempestuous, fiery and
usually vociferous Obasanjo who has gone funereally quiet, can dare
stand to challenge the President. They reason that who will
challenge Buhari if and when he decides to strike. According to the
doomsday apostles, Buhari now has a docile and pliant legislature
on his side. He has practically tamed our hitherto robust and
fearless judiciary. To cap it all, he has the instruments of the
most fearsome and intimidatory enforcement agencies at his beck and
call and the pen is no longer mightier than the sword. It is
suggested that when these attack dogs are unleashed on an already
battered and shattered citizenry their collapse into the waiting
arms of a dictator potentate would be calamitously swift.

The unbelieving Thomases point at the spate of meetings and
consultations going on almost on daily basis between the President
and Nigerians from all walks of lives, including the military wing,
serving or retired, political class, old or new, traditional
rulers, relevant or not, and so many others. They are peeved at the
fact that the President recently invited Speakers of all the State
Houses of Assembly to Abuja, belonging to different political
colouration and persuasion. They point out that the State
legislatures will be needed for any Constitutional amendment and
they are just being sweetened for the dastardly act that is to
come. Again, I don’t see any big deal. A President is usually the
father of the nation and may decide to call on anyone for support
in the face of the current tribulations ravaging the country.
Indeed, the President must be commended for reaching out in this
way. The Man simply cannot win. Hitherto, he was accused of being
insular and withdrawn, almost reclusive. Now that he is reaching
out, people are seeing phantom plots and sub-plots! Nigerians!! I
simply can’t see what is wrong in the President hosting people and
ensuring he enjoys everyone’s cooperation and collaboration in the
turbulent times that we face.

The unbelieving Thomases see these meetings as precursors to a
hidden agenda that will ultimately snowball or metamorphose into a
political conflagration when events begin to unfold at the speed of
light. Call me stupid, but I don’t see how this is possibly
feasible, now or ever. True, most members of Nigeria’s political
class lack principle and courage, but if the unexpected is tried by
Buhari, it may ignite an unexpected reaction that may lead to even
opposing forces coming together to face him squarely. Buhari knows
this fact very well, that the seeming docility or obvious reticence
of Nigerians is more tellingly dangerous than their open
loquaciousness. An animal backed to the wall is most dangerous
running back to face his attacker!

Still the unbelieving Thomases insist the President is not the
sort of person to waste unnecessary time and resources on bringing
a deluge of fat cats into Abuja without having a serious and
sinister motive. They argue that the President knows what he is
doing, and that he is certainly not so jobless or just seeking good
company in a gilded cage. I’m unhappy that we have become so
angrily divided that all we see are frightening apparitions
attributable to our wild imaginations.

The unbelieving Thomases think the matter of the supposed
ostracisation of the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo is a powerful
message to would be aspirants that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock
villa and that whosoever is nursing any such ambition should
urgently perish the thought. Osinbajo is seen as an unwilling and
unwitting pawn in the game of politics and may not be disturbed for
as long as he stays in his track without as much as a whimper,
otherwise, he would be squashed and resampled underfoot like a
pesky pest! Nobody seems to care that this is far from the truth. I
am assured, and the President and the Vice President have taken
great pains to guarantee us that the relationship between Buhari
and his Deputy has never been stronger than it is now and that the
trust and camaraderie between them is solid and unbroken.

On a serious note, I choose to believe President Buhari on this
occasion. I can’t see how he can come out in the open and tell us
he wants to stay longer than 2023, after swearing by the Holy
Koran. Besides as a Muslim he understands man alone cannot
determine his tomorrow. There are supernatural forces at play. Man
can only propose but God is always the one to dispose. The
unbelievers should calm down, especially, now that APC has publicly
disowned a rascal who went to court seeking extension to Buhari’s
stay in power. If I had doubts before, that was a clear indication
that certainly, neither the President nor the ruling party is in
cahoots with strange and mindless bedfellows with phantasmagorical
ideas that may be running riot in their brains.

Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria and its
Constitution.