Bill Gates, a co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
(BMGF), says the world still does not have enough data to
understand why COVID-19 numbers have not been as high as predicted
in Africa.
![image](/2020/10/lawreport.jpg")
The American philanthropist who invests heavily in healthcare in
Africa said he is, however, happy to have been wrong about COVID-19
rates in Africa.
![image](/2020/10/NWLRland.jpg")
“One thing I’m happy to have been wrong about—at least, I hope I
was wrong—is my fear that COVID-19 would run rampant in low-income
countries,” he wrote in his end of the year
note[1].
“So far, this hasn’t been true. In most of sub-Saharan Africa,
for example, case rates and death
rates[2] remain
much lower than in the U.S. or Europe and on par with New Zealand,
which has received so much attention for its handling of the
virus.
“The hardest-hit country on the continent is South Africa—but
even there, the case rate is 40 percent lower than in the U.S., and
the death rate is nearly 50 percent lower.”
According to Gates, “more than 1.6 million people have died in
the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 75 million cases and tens of
trillions of dollars in economic damages”.
The US has been the hardest-hit country in the world — while
South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised nation, has been
the most affected in Africa.
Bill Gates had
warned[3] early
2020 that Africa could be the worse hit by COVID-19, stating at a
conference that the virus would overwhelm health systems in the
world’s poorest continent.
Melinda Gates, also a co-chair at BMGF, said the developing
world will be hard-hit, she added that she
foresees bodies
lying around[4] in
the street of African countries.
But this has not been the case –and the world does not
understand why.
WE STILL DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY
Bill Gates said, “we don’t have enough data yet to understand
why the numbers aren’t as high as I worried they would get” — but
gave probable reasons Africa was not as affected as expected.
“It helped that some countries locked down early. In Africa,
another reason may be that the population is young compared with
the rest of the world’s, and young people are less susceptible to
the virus.
“Another reason could be that its large rural population spends
a lot of time outside, where it’s harder to spread the virus. It is
also possible—though I hope this is not the case—that the true
numbers are higher than they look because gaps in poor countries’
health care systems are making it hard to monitor the disease
accurately.”
Gates said one of his fears that have been justified is that
“COVID-19 is having a ripple effect with other diseases. Last
month, I was surprised to learn that it was only the 31st most
common cause of death in Africa. By comparison, it has ranked
number four around the world, and number one in America.”
“Why does it rank so low in Africa? It’s not just the relatively
low incidence of COVID-19 there. It’s also because shifting health
workers to focus on the coronavirus disrupted efforts to detect and
treat HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other diseases. As a
result, COVID-19 stayed low on the list of health threats, but
other problems came roaring back.
“Another reason is that patients are more reluctant to go to
clinics for fear they might become infected—and that means more
severe conditions are going undiagnosed. In India, for example, the
diagnosis rate for tuberculosis has dropped by roughly a third.
With more undetected cases, more people will probably die from the
disease.
“This is another reason why the world’s goal should be to make
sure that lifesaving tools reach—and are practical for—every
country, not just rich ones.”
Gates said 2020 has been a year of scientific advances and
failures, “but there is good news coming in 2021”.
Bill Gates, a co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
(BMGF), says the world still does not have enough data to
understand why COVID-19 numbers have not been as high as predicted
in Africa.
The American philanthropist who invests heavily in healthcare in
Africa said he is, however, happy to have been wrong about COVID-19
rates in Africa.
“One thing I’m happy to have been wrong about—at least, I hope I
was wrong—is my fear that COVID-19 would run rampant in low-income
countries,” he wrote in his end of the year note[1].
“So far, this hasn’t been true. In most of sub-Saharan Africa,
for example, case rates and death
rates[2] remain
much lower than in the U.S. or Europe and on par with New Zealand,
which has received so much attention for its handling of the
virus.
“The hardest-hit country on the continent is South Africa—but
even there, the case rate is 40 percent lower than in the U.S., and
the death rate is nearly 50 percent lower.”
According to Gates, “more than 1.6 million people have died in
the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 75 million cases and tens of
trillions of dollars in economic damages”.
The US has been the hardest-hit country in the world — while
South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised nation, has been
the most affected in Africa.
Bill Gates had
warned[3] early
2020 that Africa could be the worse hit by COVID-19, stating at a
conference that the virus would overwhelm health systems in the
world’s poorest continent.
Melinda Gates, also a co-chair at BMGF, said the developing
world will be hard-hit, she added that she
foresees bodies
lying around[4] in
the street of African countries.
But this has not been the case –and the world does not
understand why.
WE STILL DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY
Bill Gates said, “we don’t have enough data yet to understand
why the numbers aren’t as high as I worried they would get” — but
gave probable reasons Africa was not as affected as expected.
“It helped that some countries locked down early. In Africa,
another reason may be that the population is young compared with
the rest of the world’s, and young people are less susceptible to
the virus.
“Another reason could be that its large rural population spends
a lot of time outside, where it’s harder to spread the virus. It is
also possible—though I hope this is not the case—that the true
numbers are higher than they look because gaps in poor countries’
health care systems are making it hard to monitor the disease
accurately.”
Gates said one of his fears that have been justified is that
“COVID-19 is having a ripple effect with other diseases. Last
month, I was surprised to learn that it was only the 31st most
common cause of death in Africa. By comparison, it has ranked
number four around the world, and number one in America.”
“Why does it rank so low in Africa? It’s not just the relatively
low incidence of COVID-19 there. It’s also because shifting health
workers to focus on the coronavirus disrupted efforts to detect and
treat HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other diseases. As a
result, COVID-19 stayed low on the list of health threats, but
other problems came roaring back.
“Another reason is that patients are more reluctant to go to
clinics for fear they might become infected—and that means more
severe conditions are going undiagnosed. In India, for example, the
diagnosis rate for tuberculosis has dropped by roughly a third.
With more undetected cases, more people will probably die from the
disease.
“This is another reason why the world’s goal should be to make
sure that lifesaving tools reach—and are practical for—every
country, not just rich ones.”
Gates said 2020 has been a year of scientific advances and
failures, “but there is good news coming in 2021”.