A Brazilian judge on Thursday ordered former President Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva to turn himself in to police within 24 hours
to serve a 12-year sentence for a graft conviction, likely ending
the presidential front-runner’s hopes of returning to power.
Reuters reports that Lula was convicted last year for taking
bribes from an engineering firm in return for help landing
contracts with state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA.
Earlier on Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court rejected Lula’s plea
to remain free until he exhausts all his appeals, in a case he
calls a political witch hunt.
The ruling likely ends his political career and blows October’s
election wide open.
Technically, Lula could still run. Under Brazilian electoral
law, a candidate is forbidden from running for office for eight
years after being found guilty of a crime. But some exemptions have
been made in the past, and the ultimate decision would be made by
the top electoral court if and when Lula officially files to be a
candidate.
But that is considered unlikely and Brazilian financial markets
rallied on Thursday after the Supreme Court decision, which
increased the chances a market-friendly candidate will win the
election, according to analysts and political foes.
A defiant Workers Party, founded by Lula, said its supporters
would take to the streets to defend his right to run. The party
called for a Thursday night rally near Lula’s home.
“Lula continues to be our candidate, because he is innocent, and
because he is the leading candidate to become the next president of
Brazil,” said Workers Party leader, Senator Gleisi Hoffmann.
Federal Judge Sergio Moro, who has handled the bulk of cases in
Brazil’s biggest anti-corruption effort, ordered Lula to turn
himself in by late Friday afternoon. In a court document, he wrote
that Lula should not be handcuffed and would have a special cell in
the southern city of Curitiba.
Lula led Brazil in two four-year terms as president, from 2003
to January 2011, years of prosperity that were fuelled by a
commodity boom. He left office with an approval rating higher than
80 percent.
His endorsement was enough to get his hand-picked successor
Dilma Rousseff elected twice. She was impeached and removed from
office amid corruption scandals and economic crisis in
mid-2016.
Now, his backing for a candidate would not be enough, analysts
said, adding that voters will likely abandon his party in droves
when they see that its charismatic leader was no longer in the
game.
“The Workers Party will have to move quickly to Plan B, which is
former Sao Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad, or even Plan C to back a
leftist from another party like former Ceara state governor Ciro
Gomes,” said Lucas de Aragao, a political analyst with Arko Advice
in Brasilia.
Opinion polls show that Gomes and environmentalist Marina Silva
would gain the most from Lula not running in October. Extreme-right
candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is polling in second place, has
largely focused on anti-left rhetoric and may need to find a new
line of attack.
Disarray on the left could improve the chances for a centrist
such as Geraldo Alckmin, governor of Sao Paulo, Brazil’s richest
state, and candidate for the powerful Brazilian Social Democracy
Party.
Centre-right President Michel Temer is mulling a bid but has
record unpopularity in opinion polls after his austerity program
aimed at putting Brazil’s overdrawn fiscal accounts in order.
“Lula leaves no political heir and much of his electoral capital
cannot be transferred,” said Leonardo Barreto, with the
Brasilia-based political risk consultancy Factual. “This can only
help candidates who advocate continuing the reforms.”
Alckmin lamented the prison order against a former president but
added in a Twitter message: “I believe this reflects an important
change underway in Brazil: the end of impunity. The law is the same
for everyone.”
Some observers fear that putting Lula in jail will turn him into
a martyr and keep him in the public eye.
“The prison order against Lula will scramble the electoral
process even more by putting him in the spotlight,” said Fitch
Ratings director for Brazil, Rafael Guedes.
A Brazilian judge on Thursday ordered former President Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva to turn himself in to police within 24 hours
to serve a 12-year sentence for a graft conviction, likely ending
the presidential front-runner’s hopes of returning to
power.
Reuters reports that Lula was convicted last year for taking
bribes from an engineering firm in return for help landing
contracts with state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA.
Earlier on Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court rejected Lula’s plea
to remain free until he exhausts all his appeals, in a case he
calls a political witch hunt.
The ruling likely ends his political career and blows October’s
election wide open.
Technically, Lula could still run. Under Brazilian electoral
law, a candidate is forbidden from running for office for eight
years after being found guilty of a crime. But some exemptions have
been made in the past, and the ultimate decision would be made by
the top electoral court if and when Lula officially files to be a
candidate.
But that is considered unlikely and Brazilian financial markets
rallied on Thursday after the Supreme Court decision, which
increased the chances a market-friendly candidate will win the
election, according to analysts and political foes.
A defiant Workers Party, founded by Lula, said its supporters
would take to the streets to defend his right to run. The party
called for a Thursday night rally near Lula’s home.
“Lula continues to be our candidate, because he is innocent, and
because he is the leading candidate to become the next president of
Brazil,” said Workers Party leader, Senator Gleisi Hoffmann.
Federal Judge Sergio Moro, who has handled the bulk of cases in
Brazil’s biggest anti-corruption effort, ordered Lula to turn
himself in by late Friday afternoon. In a court document, he wrote
that Lula should not be handcuffed and would have a special cell in
the southern city of Curitiba.
Lula led Brazil in two four-year terms as president, from 2003
to January 2011, years of prosperity that were fuelled by a
commodity boom. He left office with an approval rating higher than
80 percent.
His endorsement was enough to get his hand-picked successor
Dilma Rousseff elected twice. She was impeached and removed from
office amid corruption scandals and economic crisis in
mid-2016.
Now, his backing for a candidate would not be enough, analysts
said, adding that voters will likely abandon his party in droves
when they see that its charismatic leader was no longer in the
game.
“The Workers Party will have to move quickly to Plan B, which is
former Sao Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad, or even Plan C to back a
leftist from another party like former Ceara state governor Ciro
Gomes,” said Lucas de Aragao, a political analyst with Arko Advice
in Brasilia.
Opinion polls show that Gomes and environmentalist Marina Silva
would gain the most from Lula not running in October. Extreme-right
candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is polling in second place, has
largely focused on anti-left rhetoric and may need to find a new
line of attack.
Disarray on the left could improve the chances for a centrist
such as Geraldo Alckmin, governor of Sao Paulo, Brazil’s richest
state, and candidate for the powerful Brazilian Social Democracy
Party.
Centre-right President Michel Temer is mulling a bid but has
record unpopularity in opinion polls after his austerity program
aimed at putting Brazil’s overdrawn fiscal accounts in order.
“Lula leaves no political heir and much of his electoral capital
cannot be transferred,” said Leonardo Barreto, with the
Brasilia-based political risk consultancy Factual. “This can only
help candidates who advocate continuing the reforms.”
Alckmin lamented the prison order against a former president but
added in a Twitter message: “I believe this reflects an important
change underway in Brazil: the end of impunity. The law is the same
for everyone.”
Some observers fear that putting Lula in jail will turn him into
a martyr and keep him in the public eye.
“The prison order against Lula will scramble the electoral
process even more by putting him in the spotlight,” said Fitch
Ratings director for Brazil, Rafael Guedes.
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