Pendulum: Why Many Nigerians are Scared of the Year 2019 By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, this is usually a festive period when most
people look forward to the New Year, with high hopes and great
expectations. But not anymore. I don’t know if you have noticed,
wherever two or three Nigerians are gathered these days, the
subject of discussion is Nigeria’s elections, especially the
Presidential election, coming up next February. And many analysts
talk with trepidation, out of the fear that the APC government
appears desperate and may not wish to relinquish power,
voluntarily, without putting up a fight. “Buhari was a military
dictator, unlike Jonathan, and it would be difficult for you guys
to chase him away like you did to Jonathan,” a prominent Nigerian
told me recently. I then asked, “do you mean Buhari will refuse to
hand over power even if he glaringly loses the election?” His
response was chillingly cold-blooded “mark my word, Buhari’s people
are ready for war…” he quipped.

Though the tell-tale signs are there, considering the unusual
electoral malpractices in Ekiti, Osun, Kwara and other places where
voters have allegedly been brazenly intimidated, disenfranchised
and disillusioned. It is generally believed that the security
forces, especially the Police have been largely compromised and
that they are unashamedly doing the Government’s bidding, even if
it means that the very tenets of democracy are being eroded with
the attendant calamitous consequences that may befall our beloved
country as a result. The Government has not helped matters much on
this issue because people wonder why such use of humongous force
can be strategically organised and positioned for elections, which
should otherwise be peaceful events, when such force cannot be used
against our insurgents who appear to be back with a bang and
slowly, steadily and surely eroding our territory and our
sovereignty. The Government’s claim that its aim in dealing with
elections in this way is to protect democracy and ensure the
fairness of those elections seems false given the allegations of
intimidation and violence made against the security forces.

That is not all. It is being widely debated as to whether or not
the government is busy throwing money around as a way of suborning
the electorates under the guise of empowering the masses through
its Trader Moni and Npower schemes.

The Trader Moni scheme aims to start of petty traders with small
interest free loans starting from N10,000 and rising incrementally
on repayment to N100,000. The Government says that the Bank of
Industry co-ordinated scheme hopes to assist petty traders who
would not otherwise have access to affordable bank loans to grow
their businesses. Detractors question the timing of the scheme and
the amount of money that beneficiaries of the scheme are being
paid. It is almost as if they are being paid this initial N10,000
in order to buy their votes and this was magnified by the unfounded
rumours that was circulated that PVC’s were a requirement to obtain
the loan. As the Government stresses in promoting the scheme, this
is an empowerment programme which is not associated with any
vote-buying scheme. One thing is clear though, the petty traders
who are recipients of this interest free loan are smiling all the
way to the bank and appreciate the Government’s gesture. The
turnout and visible smiles on the face of market women where ever
the Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, has visited in promotion of
this scheme speaks volumes about its acceptance amongst those it
intends to benefit. Whether there is an ulterior motive will soon
be revealed especially when the period for the incremental increase
dawns and the elections are over.

The other scheme which traducers of the Government claim is
merely a vote-buying gimmick is Npower. The scheme aims at
eventually providing everyday skills which can be usefully deployed
by the millions of unemployed youths in the Country. Those lucky to
benefit from the scheme get paid a stipend which the opposition
considers is a mere bribe to secure the votes and support of the
jobless, frustrated youths.

It is a mark of the times that we are in, and the impoverishment
of the people, that these two schemes with the miserly amounts
involved can catch the attention of the populace. Their intendment
and effect have been likened to the welfare system which operates
in most welfare countries, with Government protagonists calling it
a form of the “dole” which operates in the United Kingdom. Those
who oppose both schemes say that these are corrupted versions of
the benefit system being propagated to suit a corrupt purpose by a
government which corrupts everything including its so-called
seminal fight against corruption.

What is also scary for neutral observers of the polity is the
fact cyberbullying has been on the rise in dramatic fashion.
Everywhere you turn on social media, there are rabid Buhari
supporters, in particular, who treat their idol like God, such that
any form of criticism attracts instant vitriolic and acerbic
attack. On a WhatsApp group I was till yesterday, a querulous and
garrulous young man who seems to defend every action of APC and
Buhari went completely berserk saying anyone who supports Atiku
Abubakar must be mentally deranged and requires urgent psychiatric
attention, perhaps. Another one of them said Omoyele Sowore must be
sick because of certain utterances he made recently. I couldn’t
take the intolerance again and told the attacker to change his
attitude “in the name of God.”

As far as these people are concerned, everyone who has any form
of sympathy for PDP or its Presidential candidate is automatically
a rogue and looter. Yet the same so-called “looters and rogues” are
welcomed with open arms whenever a member of PDP saunters across to
APC so that his sins can be forgiven instantly, and he can become a
‘saint’ in the eyes of these unreasonable and illogical fanatics.
It is true that the PDP has created a long list of looters and
perceived looters, but the same has always been true of APC. That
is why the corruption fight has never really gotten off the ground
and it is why the Government may eventually lose the war because of
its concentration on this one issue while failing to realise that
the people want economic and social emancipation first and
foremost. For them, corruption is ultimately only at best a
distraction which will be relegated to the background when the
reality of the pervading hunger biting at them strikes home.

Many are wondering how some could be so brainwashed into seeing
the sins of one Party and its members but are completely blind to
the sins of others who are members of the ruling party. Blaming the
problems of Nigeria on the 16 years of PDP is no longer ingenious
now that APC is busy attracting and accepting the same demons into
their fold, indiscriminately. I do not understand the audacity that
makes APC feel it can continue to use those lines of calling others
thieves when there have been too many instances of similar
recklessness within its circle. Those with discernment recall that
it is not all of the 16 PDP years that can be described as a period
of profligacy and reckless plundering. In any event apart from
possibly some of the antics of the Petroleum Ministry and the NNPC,
few knew about the pillaging that was occurring under the Jonathan
Government until the Government fell. Some argue that the same fate
awaits the present administration and that people will be amazed at
the level of brigandage and damage done to our collective
commonwealth by a cabal within this government and a few other
senior Ministers. The claim is that Dasukigate is child’s play, but
that we shall only know the truth whenever the government is
dethroned. I cannot personally vouch for the authenticity of these
claims, but I hear the strident pleas of the First Lady, Aisha
Buhari about the need to expose a cabal which is making the
Presidency unable to fulfil the Change that it promised.

Also, whenever they call the PDP Presidential candidate, Alhaji
Atiku Abubakar, a corrupt man, I often wonder if Atiku was ever
more than a Vice President and if he wielded more influence than
the President. Moreover, the only basis for this continues to be
the fact that his Boss, President Obasanjo, said so in the past,
and an American Congressional investigation seemingly indicted him
on some transactions as a result of which his visa application was
turned down. What I fail to understand is why these two matters
would continue to be an issue when the Boss, President Obasanjo has
wholeheartedly embraced the candidature of Atiku, warts and all,
and the American law enforcement agencies have never indicted him,
and the Government of that country now appears prepared to issue
him a visa. In my view, those who live in glass houses should not
throw stones. A lot of respect has been accorded the President
whose dignity and integrity has generally been protected by the
military and political class and the fourth estate of the realm.
This is understandably so, because we must not denigrate our
leaders or soil their reputations if this can be avoided.
Nevertheless, I think it is about time that the Administration
starts trumpeting its successes in the economic and social
infrastructure sector as well as security. The government does have
laudable and stellar achievements it can point to. The Government
should also focus on its plans for the future. If the President
allows his team to trawl the gutter in the allegations they are
making against the former Vice-President of the country, a time may
come when all the gloves go off and fisticuffs or roforofo fight
becomes the order of the day with everybody besmeared and
besmirched.

It is the unrelenting smear campaign against the PDP
Presidential candidate Atiku, without any real regard to the issues
which are paramount for the masses that is ultimately the biggest
fear factor. If the APC has nothing good to tell us about what it
proposes to do for the country if it wins, beyond saying that
Nigerians must not vote for a looter, then the presumption is that
they will take all steps to ensure that their rhetoric succeeds by
hook and by crook. The logic is that the APC is so desperate to
cling on to power even though it does not know what to do with it
and accordingly, out of that desperation it will subvert the will
of the electorate by foisting itself on the people with the might
of the security forces at its behest and disposal. We may not need
to get to this stage if APC realises that it can campaign on the
issues, and change its ways, so that winning the elections is no
longer in doubt. I fear however, that the ship has long since
sailed in that regard and the major protagonists on the APC are
hawkish warmongers who do not want to go back into the political
wilderness that they had been consigned to before the
all-conquering APC was birthed.

It is the hope of the generality of Nigerians that the Nigerian
security forces will in the end shun partisanship and live to the
true spirit of their oath to defend Nigeria and not any individual
or Party. Soldier come, Soldier go! The will of the people must
always be allowed to prevail and if this means another Party
gaining power so be it. This has happened in the recent past and it
will happen again. That is the beauty of democracy which our
security forces have sworn to protect!

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