A Closer Look: Everton’s Strong Start to the Season

For the first time in quite some time, some have the Blues as
narrow favorites against the Champions. How strong is this Everton
side?

Everton have started the 2020/21 season well in
the attack in both the Premier League and the Carabao Cup, with 108
shots (47 on target, and 24 goals) — shot numbers second only to
Liverpool’s 137, but the Reds fall short of their
neighbors where it matters: 53 of their shots have been on target,
leading to just 19 goals.

What’s interesting about Everton’s attack thus far in the season, however, is
the narrowness of their shot map. Though the Toffees have scored
two goals from outside their opponent’s penalty box, every one of
their 24 goals have come from spaces within the width of the
six-yard box (in other words, focused in narrowly on the center of
the pitch). Though the sample size is small (there have only been
seven competitive matches played thus far this season, and only
four in the Premier League), this concentration on central areas
suggests manager Carlo Ancelotti has impressed upon his team the
importance of good quality chances: in general, and as you might
expect, expected goal (xG) models rate shots in the central areas
close to the opposition’s goal as having the highest xG value.

Photo
by Emma Simpson/Everton FC via Getty Images

More than xG, though (since many are skeptical of xG
and the season has only just begun, so sample sizes are
small), the narrow shot map suggests that this Everton side have a
finely-worked offensive plan, and will be organized in their
approach this weekend. They have not relied on counter attacks,
instead favoring smart buildup over high-pressure, reactionary play
(though certainly this is a reaction to their opponents’ approach
as well). Dominic Calvert-Lewin, their leading goalscorer, is
flourishing in part by finding good areas close to the opposition
goal (his xG per shot in all competitions is 0.3 and 0.24 in the
Premier League, incredibly high numbers suggestive of the quality
spaces he has been allowed to find); Everton’s xG per shot overall
is 0.19, also on the higher side. This is perhaps concerning for
Liverpool, who have been allowing slightly higher-quality shots
thus far this season (with the caveat, of course, that the sample
size is small).

Bottom line? While Ancelotti’s Everton are far from a finished
product, they’re a far more fearsome group than the squad Liverpool
faced in 2019/20, as additions to the Toffees have bolstered a side
already much-improved when the sides met after the COVID-forced
break in the season.

Photo
by Jan Kruger/Getty Images

So, Everton look really good, but how scared should we be?

Numbers-wise, it’s hard to know, as the Carabao Cup form is hard
to compare to that of the Premier League given the squad rotation
involved, and the limited number of games makes it difficult to
come to any solid conclusions about Ancelotti’s side. Despite what
some have said, Everton have not had a wholly easy start to the
league season: while Tottenham performed poorly, Brighton and Hove
Albion are no pushovers, and this season’s Crystal Palace looks to have more teeth than last
season’s version.

But ignoring the desire for “analysis,” our eyes certainly tell
us that the Toffees’ good results are not flattering to deceive,
and this Everton side are certainly comparable, if not better, than
those the Reds have faced thus far in their challenging start to
the season.

As for patterns to expect, the Blues do tend to attack down
their right-hand side through to the center with James Rodriguez
acting as maestro, a set-up which has worked well for them. That
said, if they stick to this pattern of efficiency they will be
unable to target the space between Joe Gomez and Trent Alexander-Arnold, which
other teams have done with some success. Against Arsenal there was no weakness in this space, largely
because Naby Keïta did a fantastic job plugging the holes there — a
job often handled quietly but expertly by the then-injured Jordan Henderson. A lot went wrong against
Aston Villa before the break, but one of the most
notable issues was the gap in this space, as the midfield and
defense were disconnected, and these gaps were exploited. It goes
without saying that the Reds will need to fix this for the match at
Goodison.

While Liverpool’s defensive record has been spoken about at
length — and for good reason — it is also worth noting that Everton
have only managed two clean sheets thus far this season, both
coming early on: one against a lethargic Tottenham Hotspur and the other against League Two
Salford City FC in the Second Round of the Carabao Cup.
Furthermore, of the goals this Everton side have conceded, only one
has come late, after a match could be considered “settled”
(Brighton’s Yves Bissouma scored in stoppage time in his side’s 4-2
defeat away at Goodison before the international break).

Other than this late goal, three of the eight goals Everton have
conceded have come in the first half, and the other four in the in
the 15 minutes following halftime; indeed, it’s worth noting that
three of the five second half goals conceded have come within three
minutes of the start to the second half (Robert Snodgrass scored 36 seconds after the
restart in West Ham’s defeat in the Carabao Cup, making the score
at that point 2-1). Though the sample size is small, this period
after the restart might be worth targeting for Jürgen Klopp’s
side.

Photo
by Jan Kruger/Getty Images

Interestingly, Everton are over-performing their xG (Instat has
their xG at 18 for the season thus far, in all competitions), while
Liverpool, are only slightly overperforming their season xG of 16
(Liverpool have scored two penalties, while Everton have scored
one). (As a side note: Last season, StatsBomb showed that Liverpool’s actual goal
difference was massively skewed as the side conceded fewer goals
than expected and scored around ten more than xG models predicted —
while Manchester City scored and conceded as expected
with models suggesting a stronger goal difference than Liverpool;
the difference in these numbers is largely why Manchester City came into this season as favorites
despite Liverpool’s impressive title win and the points gap between
the two sides.)

What is Liverpool’s best approach, given all of this? Push for a
high-intensity game, disrupting the passing rhythm and organized
build-up that a lower-pressure Everton have favored thus far,
concentrating on controlling the midfield and limiting James
Rodriguez’s ability to connect up with Richarlison and
Calvert-Lewin. On the offensive side of things? Everton’s main
weakness is, as ever, Jordan Pickford, who has already conceded two
more goals than predicted even at this stage in the season.